While economic powerhouses have successfully shouldered the burden of economic growth, some provinces have also experienced fluctuations in their economic data. According to the official websites of the provincial statistical bureaus, as of July 30, the first-half of 2024 economic "report cards" for all 31 provinces (excluding Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) have been released. Among them, 16 provinces' Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rates have outpaced the national average (5.0%).
Economic powerhouses remain the "mainstay"
Looking at the total economic output for the first half of the year, economic powerhouses continue to be the "mainstay". Guangdong (6,524.25 billion yuan) and Jiangsu (6,332.63 billion yuan) remain in the top two positions, accounting for more than 20% of the national share; Shandong (4,667.7 billion yuan), Zhejiang (4,092 billion yuan), and Henan (3,123.144 billion yuan) are ranked third to fifth, respectively. Sichuan, Hubei, Fujian, Hunan, Anhui, Shanghai, Beijing, and Hebei have all exceeded 2 trillion yuan. Compared to the same period last year, Beijing has overtaken Hebei to rank twelfth, and Inner Mongolia has surpassed Shanxi to break into the top twenty. In terms of growth rates, the figures of various provinces fall within the range of 1%-6.2%, with 8 provinces having reached their annual targets. Inner Mongolia leads with a high-speed growth of 6.2%, followed closely by Chongqing and Tibet, both with a growth rate of 6.1%. It is worth noting that the GDP growth rates of Qinghai, Heilongjiang, and Shanxi are all below 2%. Overall, 7 out of the top 10 GDP provinces have growth rates exceeding the national average (5.0%), with 5 exceeding 5.5%. It is noteworthy that Henan Province and Shanxi Province's GDP for the first half of 2024 are 3,123.144 trillion yuan and 1,118.685 trillion yuan, respectively, while in the first half of 2023 they were 3,132.6 trillion yuan and 1,168.856 trillion yuan, respectively, with both provinces showing a negative increase.
Five provinces experience negative consumption growth
Looking at the "three engines" of economic growth (investment, consumption, and exports), investment and foreign trade exports are generally positive, while consumption is relatively weak. Among the 31 provinces, Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin, Hainan, and Qinghai have experienced a year-on-year negative growth in the total retail sales of consumer goods in the first half of the year, with declines of 0.3%, 2.3%, 2.1%, 6.2%, and 4.3%, respectively. Among them, Beijing and Shanghai have slowed down by 4.8 and 25.8 percentage points compared to the same period last year. One of the reasons is that last year was the first year after the optimization and adjustment of COVID-19 prevention and control measures, and the base number for consumption growth was relatively high. The decline in catering income has become an important reason for the negative growth in consumption in Beijing and Shanghai. Data shows that in the first half of the year, Beijing's catering industry income decreased by 3.5% year-on-year, and Shanghai's accommodation and catering industry decreased by 3.6% year-on-year. At the same time, Shanghai's retail sales of goods (home appliances, hardware, etc.) and fuel products (petroleum, natural gas, etc.) decreased by 4.7% and 3.9% year-on-year, respectively. Deng Jinbing, Deputy Director of the Service Industry Division of the Shanghai Municipal Commission of Commerce, said at a press conference on July 10 that since the beginning of this year, affected by multiple factors such as market consumption confidence fluctuations and rising business operating costs, the pressure on Shanghai's catering industry has increased. On July 17, the Beijing Municipal Bureau of Statistics stated that this year, the consumption trend has continued to shift towards a rational experience, and the foundation and momentum for the recovery and improvement of the consumer goods market need to be further consolidated and strengthened. The next step is to continuously optimize the business environment, improve consumer supply, increase the cultivation of new types of consumption, and promote the recovery and development of the Beijing consumer market. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that in the first half of the year, the year-on-year growth rate of the total retail sales of consumer goods decreased by 4.5 percentage points compared to the same period last year. Among them, the year-on-year growth rates of the total retail sales of consumer goods in April and June were 2.3% and 2%, respectively, lower than the growth rates of other months since the beginning of 2023. "From the consumption and investment data, the problem of demand contraction still exists this year, and the development trend has accelerated," said Zhang Liqun, a researcher at the Macroeconomic Research Department of the Development Research Center of the State Council. It is necessary to pay special attention to the demand contraction guided by the market, which has already caused changes in the data of the production and supply side. Whether the market-guided demand contraction can be reversed as soon as possible in the second half of the year is crucial for achieving the expected target of economic growth for the whole year.
Henan's mobile phone exports decline
In terms of foreign trade, the foreign trade situation of major economic provinces in the first half of this year has been good, and the effect of "going abroad to grab orders" has gradually emerged, to some extent, offsetting the impact of the weak global market. Among them, Guangdong, Zhejiang, and Jiangsu have export volumes exceeding 1.5 trillion yuan in the first half of the year. Guangdong continues to maintain its position as the "largest exporting province" with an export volume of 2,846.9 billion yuan, and its year-on-year growth rate of 12.1% is also the highest among major economic provinces. On July 23, Yang Xinhong, the head of the Guangdong Provincial Bureau of Statistics, said that due to the impact of short-term factors such as extreme climate and flood disasters in the first half of the year, and the high degree of outward orientation and marketization of Guangdong enterprises, the impact may be more direct. Under such circumstances, Guangdong's import and export in the first half of the year grew by double digits, and the economic pull was stronger than last year. Yang Xinhong pointed out that at the current stage of economic development, on the whole, the basic situation of Guangdong's economy has not changed, and the trend of economic operation towards high-quality and quality improvement has not changed, and the positive energy accumulated by the main operators has not changed. In addition, Henan, which has been the "first province in foreign trade in the central region" for 12 consecutive years, is facing a decline in the total export volume. According to the statistics of the Zhengzhou Customs, in the first half of this year, Henan Province's foreign trade import and export was 325.32 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.8%. Among them, exports were 200.83 billion yuan, a decrease of 19.1 percentage points compared to the same period last year's 250.58 billion yuan. Mobile phones, as the "mainstay" of Henan's exports, saw a total export value of 56.5 billion yuan in the first half of this year, a decline of 49.1% compared to the same period last year, which will have a certain impact on foreign trade. It is understood that over the past decade, mobile phone exports once accounted for nearly half of Henan's exports. Since 2022, the total value has gradually declined. From 2021 to 2023, the total export value of mobile phones in Henan fell from 272.72 billion yuan to 240.62 billion yuan, and the proportion of Henan's total export value also fell from 54.3% to 45.6%. In the first half of this year, the proportion further declined to 28.1%. The export volume of mobile phones has obviously declined. In 2018, the export volume of mobile phones in Henan reached a historical high of about 126 million units, and then fell year by year. In 2023, it fell to 57.61 million units, and only 13.951 million units in the first half of this year. However, Henan is not unprepared, and its new energy vehicle industry is on the rise. Data shows that in the first four months of this year, the export of electric vehicles in Henan reached 2.68 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 69.6%. In the first five months, the production of new energy vehicles in Zhengzhou city increased by 72.8% year-on-year. On the one hand, BYD has built the world's largest manufacturing plant in Zhengzhou. On the other hand, Foxconn's new energy vehicle prototype center has now settled in Zhengzhou, and new energy vehicles are expected to become a new growth booster for Henan in the future. At the same time, on the evening of July 18, the General Office of the People's Government of Henan Province issued the "Several Measures to Promote the Integrated Development of Domestic and Foreign Trade in Henan Province" (hereinafter referred to as the "Measures"), pointing out that Henan Province will accelerate the construction of the RCEP (Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement) demonstration zone and promote Zhengzhou, Luoyang, Nanyang, and other cities to build demonstration cities for the integrated development of domestic and foreign trade. The "Measures" mainly include five aspects: promoting the connection and integration of domestic and foreign trade rules and systems, promoting the docking of domestic and foreign trade market channels, optimizing the development environment for the integrated development of domestic and foreign trade, accelerating the coordinated development of key areas of domestic and foreign trade, and improving the safeguard measures for the integrated development of domestic and foreign trade. It is worth noting that the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, with a growth rate of 6.2% in the first half of 2024, has the fastest growth rate. In addition to traditional industries such as coal, rare earths, and steel, Inner Mongolia has also built a new energy industry system dominated by photovoltaics and wind power. While investment has soared, it has also driven the rise of related manufacturing industries. In the first half of this year, the fixed asset investment in Inner Mongolia increased by 12% year-on-year, the added value of the equipment manufacturing industry increased by 41.3% year-on-year, the wind power generation increased by 18.6%, and the output of rare earth compounds and polysilicon increased by 2.3 times and 1.1 times, respectively. Not only that, but the Zhun格尔 flag, which is part of the Ordos city in Inner Mongolia, is committed to building a national clean and efficient power output base, and has built the Mengxi to Tianjin South ultra-high voltage national power transmission channel, achieving "coal from the air, electricity to Beijing, Tianjin, and Tangshan". It is understood that the new energy industry of the Zhun格尔 flag plans to complete an investment of about 11 billion yuan within the year, and complete the construction of a 4 million kilowatt wind and light base, and strive to break through the new energy installation scale of 5 million kilowatts. On April 3 of this year, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Natural Resources, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, the National Energy Administration, and the National Forestry and Grassland Administration jointly issued the "Notice on Several Policy Measures to Support the Green and Low-Carbon High-Quality Development of Inner Mongolia", proposing to accelerate the green and low-carbon transformation of energy, build a green and low-carbon modern industrial system, promote green development in key areas, strengthen green and low-carbon scientific and technological innovation, comprehensively improve the quality and stability of the ecological environment, and deepen regional all-round opening and cooperation, etc. 7 aspects and 30 support measures. Inner Mongolia is continuously narrowing the gap with Shanxi, and it is expected that in the next few years, the total GDP will surpass Shanxi and enter the top 20 provinces.
Comments